World Cup 2026 Winner
France lead at 20% on Kalshi after the group stage. Germany eliminated by Ecuador. Round of 32 begins July 1. Final at MetLife Stadium July 19.
Updated: Jun 30, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC · Kalshi + Polymarket · Not financial advice.
Current Favorite
France to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup
📊 All Markets(9 open · 1 resolved)
ℹ️ How to read these odds
- % — implied probability. 20% = 1-in-5 chance.
- +400 — bet $100, win $400 profit. -110 — bet $110 to win $100.
- ▲/▼ pp — percentage point move in 24h. Big moves = new information.
- Vol — total traded. Higher = more reliable price signal.
Editorial Analysis
France enter the Round of 32 as the clear market leaders at 20% on Kalshi, backed by a group stage that saw Kylian Mbappe score three times without conceding. Their path to the final runs through Saudi Arabia, then likely England or Morocco in the quarter-final.
The biggest story of the group stage was Germany's 2-1 elimination by Ecuador — the largest single market crash of the tournament. Germany were trading at 9% on Kalshi before kick-off. The market resolved at 0% within 90 minutes.
England's surge to 16% reflects both their clean group stage and the favorable draw. The England squad depth is the deepest in a generation. Jude Bellingham has been the standout individual of the tournament.
For the full tournament schedule and bracket, see the World Cup 2026 schedule and dates. For pre-tournament odds analysis, see the World Cup 2026 favorites preview.